In – depth Analysis of U.S. Comprehensive Tariff Policy on Consumer Market and Economy— Investment and Consumption Guide for Global Middle – Class

Optimized Keywords: U.S. Tariff Policy Impact, Global Trade Pattern Changes, Middle – Class Consumption Guide, Dollar Depreciation Response Strategies, Cross – border Investment Opportunities Analysis

The stance of this article is to discuss matters from a business perspective. However, the comprehensive tariff policy that the United States is set to roll out on April 2, 2025, merits attention. This policy is highly likely to weaponize the domestic consumer market in the United States and force the reshoring of manufacturing industries at the cost of global deindustrialization. Unlike the tariffs imposed by previous administrations targeting specific countries (such as China and Canada), this round of policy covers major trading partners including the European Union, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, etc., marking a fundamental shift in the United States’ trade strategy.

1. Chain Reactions in the U.S. Domestic Economy

(1) Structural Crisis in the Consumer Market

• Sustained Increase in Price Index: In February 2025, the core CPI rose by 2.8% year – on – year (expected 2.7%), and the data for January was revised up to 2.7%. After the implementation of automobile tariffs, the average car price is expected to increase by $4,000 – $15,000.
• Depletion of Household Savings: The $2.1 trillion in savings accumulated by U.S. households during the pandemic was exhausted within three years. The proportion of rent expenditure in household pre – tax income increased from 35% in 2021 to 42% in 2024, approaching the international warning line.

(2) Vulnerability of the Debt System

• Worsening Credit Card Crisis: In the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of credit card debts overdue for more than 90 days reached 11.1% (the highest in nearly 13 years), and the bad debt rate of Capital One was 6.35% (a new high in 13 years).
• Transformation of Consumer Finance Models: The consumption amount of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services reached $75 billion in 2024. The user base has expanded to include spending on daily necessities, and the fact that the food delivery platform DoorDash has launched installment services indicates that debt pressure has become widespread among the general public.

(3) Overt Signs of Economic Recession

• Record Trade Deficit: In January 2025, the trade deficit reached $153 billion (+25.6%), and the consumer confidence index fell to the level of the 2008 financial crisis.
• Deteriorating Job Market: The manufacturing cost index was 48.3% (nearly half of the enterprises reported cost increases). In 2025, the number of layoffs approached the peak of 2009, and 60% of Americans expected the unemployment rate to rise.

2. Opportunities for Reconstructing the Global Trade Pattern

(1) Potential Crisis in the Dollar System

The U.S. dollar index has fallen for three consecutive months. The reduction in the supply of U.S. dollars in the international market has created opportunities for the reconstruction of the monetary system. Currencies in emerging markets face:

• Challenges: A possible wave of competitive devaluations (158 countries worldwide have exports accounting for more than 20% of their GDP).
• Opportunities: A window for the internationalization of the RMB (China’s export share is 20%, lower than the global average of 29%).

(2) Regional Opportunities for Industrial Chain Reconstruction

3. Coping Strategies for the Middle Class

(1) Optimization of Consumption Decisions

• Inflation Hedge Portfolio: Allocate gold (up 12% in 2024) and energy ETFs (+23%).
• Debt Management Advice: Prioritize paying off credit card debts (average interest rate 20.3%) and rationally use interest – free installment tools.

(2) Insights into Investment Directions

• Regional Opportunities: Focus on Southeast Asia (Vietnam’s exports grew by 18% in 2024) and Central and Eastern Europe (Hungary’s manufacturing cost advantage).
• Technological Trends: New energy (stimulated by the U.S. IRA Act) and AI applications (enterprise cost – reduction needs).

(3) Risk Early – Warning Mechanism

• Exchange Rate Risk: Establish U.S. dollar/euro hedging positions.
• Policy Risk: Monitor the trade policy trends of G7 countries (possible joint countermeasures in 2025).

4. Conclusion and Outlook

The U.S. tariff policy is accelerating the reconstruction of the global economic landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for the middle class. Key areas to focus on include:

• Cross – border asset allocation during the internationalization of the EURO and RMB.
• Brand export opportunities brought about by consumption upgrading in emerging markets.
• Regional investment dividends resulting from the reconstruction of the supply chain.

Data Sources: Federal Reserve, World Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Bloomberg Terminal.
Disclaimer: The analysis and conclusions in this article are based on the macroeconomic data from 2024 to 2025. Readers are advised to formulate personalized strategies under the guidance of professional consultants according to their own asset situations.